It’s almost 2 o’clock in the morning, and I am sitting at my computer, watching as the early results come in, knowing that it will be a while before we get a clear picture of the result and the new Government.
The exit poll has been released and it shows that the Conservatives are the largest party, but not enough seats to have an overall majority. Now of course, in recent political events the pollsters have been proved wrong time and time again, with the Conservative majority of 2015, Britain’s vote to leave the European Union, and the election of Donald Trump as President of the United States.
So if the polls aren’t as reliable as they used to be, we need to ask ourselves the question. What are the possible outcomes of this election?
Let’s start off with the exit poll and assume that it is somewhat accurate of what the result will be.
The exit poll shows that the Conservatives will be the largest party but will not have the majority of seats. If this is true then it could result in either a Minority Government or Coalition. This would be difficult for the Conservatives as they would find it difficult to govern the country, especially during the Brexit process. The purpose of the election was for Theresa May to secure her mandate for securing a Brexit deal, which becomes harder if she loses her majority as the exit poll suggests.
Due to the prediction of a Hung Parliament many are discussing the possibility of a coalition. The main coalition being pushed by analysts is between the Conservatives and the Democratic Unionist Party, which would allow the Conservatives to have support of over 326 MPs. Although the Labour Party may form a coalition with another party.
However due to the result for the Liberal Democrats in 2015 after a coalition Government has shown political parties that coalitions can result in poor electoral results, which has no doubt discouraged political parties from forming a coalition. Making a Minority Government more likely than a coalition.
In the unlikely event of a Majority Government, the party which achieves this will be able to secure a brexit deal and govern the country with a secure mandate and deliver on their manifesto promises, rather than compromise within a coalition.
After election results it is often asked whether or not parties will have the same leader. In Theresa May’s case it does not look good, if she comes out of this election having lost her majority and significantly weakened her party’s position, she may be forced to resign the Conservative Leadership, although she may stay on.
Jeremy Corbyn’s position does look more promising, although the Conservative’s are predicted to have the most seats in the House of Commons, Corbyn’s campaign for Labour has taken their support and increased it, and discredited early predictions for a Labour wipeout. If the party under Corbyn can raise this amount of support he may not stand down as leader of the party.
This was a brief summary of what the outcomes of this election could be, but what could it be?
Will we wake up to a Minority, Coalition, or Majority? Will the parties have the same leaders after this election?
Only time will tell.
Anyway it’s now 3 o’clock in the morning and I must go and have my 5th cup of coffee of the night.