GE2017: Exit Poll Analysis

The exit poll for the 2017 General Election shows a the Conservatives as the largest party, but losing an overall majority, predicting a hung parliament, but if this exit poll is accurate then what could happen for the political parties.

Conservatives: 314

The exit poll shows that the Conservatives have lost seats and their majority.  If this happens then Theresa May’s attempt to gain more power will have failed, and it could result in her having to resign as leader of the Conservatives.

Although the Conservatives may have lost their majority, they are still the largest party and could form a Minority Government.  This position could make it harder for the party to govern the country, especially in brexit negotiations, as their position would have been weakened, instead of strengthened as May had hoped when she called a snap election.

This could also show that Tory policies have not been accepted and the message of Strong and Stable Leadership has also been met with scepticism by the public.

Labour: 266

Labour’s vote has increased and go from 232 seats to 266 in the exit poll.  This shows that Jeremy Corbyn and the Labour campaign has allowed the party to grow in support.  This exit poll looks good for Labour as they were predicted to be wiped out at the start of the election.  Even if Labour are not the largest party it is unclear whether or not Corbyn would have to step down as leader, as even though they are behind the Conservatives, they have increased their support, and Corbyn’s leadership may continue to rally support for Labour after the election.  Many are saying that a coalition is possible, but even the progressive coalition that has been discussed will still be behind the Conservative Party.  It is unclear what could happen for Labour at this point, although it looks as if this election will be good for the party and the leadership.

Liberal Democrats: 14

The Lib Dems have seen a small increase from 9 to 14 seats.  Although this is not enough to support their mandate for a second referendum on Brexit.  Although their growth does make them likely coalition partners.  Although the wipeout of the Lib Dems in 2015 as a result of the coalition can make it less likely for the party to enter a coalition with other parties, Tim Farron, the LD leader has ruled out a coalition.  It also can be suggested that the idea of another major vote has been rejected by the public, as this was one of the biggest Lib Dem policies in this election.

Scottish National Party: 34

The exit poll shows the SNP lose a portion of the seats that they won in the 2015 General Election, although they will still take the majority of Scotland’s seats.  Analysts have suggested that the SNP may lose seats to the Conservatives over the issue of independence.  This could decrease their mandate for a second independence referendum.  It is unlikely that the SNP will enter into coalition with the Labour Party as Jeremy Corbyn has ruled it out.

UK Independence Party: 0

It seems as if UKIP have been rejected by the British people after Brexit, and are seen as irrelevant after their main campaign promise, to leave the EU, has been fulfilled.  It is suggested that the UKIP vote could be split between Labour and the Conservatives due to the discussion of local issues throughout the election.

Policies

The exit poll suggests that local issues and their prominence in the election is said to have impacted the exit poll, it suggests that due to Brexit not taking centre stage as expected has reduced the seats predicted for the Conservatives.

The fall in SNP seats could suggest a fall in support for independence, or a criticism of their domestic policy in the Scottish Parliament.

Labour’s growth rather than electoral wipeout predictions shows how the party’s policies may have proved popular.


As we know all to well, Exit Polls can be accurate but not always correct, we will have to wait and see when the results are declared and the picture becomes clearer as to who will be running the country.

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