Is Scottish Independence less or more likely?

The media have reported that First Minister of Scotland and leader of the Scottish National Party (SNP) Nicola Sturgeon has announced that she has plans for a second referendum on Scotland’s Independence in 2018 or 2019.

During a press conference the First Minister said that the likelihood of a compromise between the UK Government and Scotland was unlikely, and that throughout the Brexit process she would continue to represent Scotland’s interests.  She portrayed her dismay at a Hard Brexit and said that Scotland, as a country that voted 62% to remain in the EU, should have a choice between Brexit and being an independent country.

The question of a second referendum on Scottish Independence has been speculated since the Brexit vote, as every local authority area in Scotland voted to remain.  The issue has had occasional mentions in the media, when UK politicians would comment on the possibility of a second referendum and whether the UK Government would allow it.  More recently, a poll came out which suggested that support for independence in Scotland had risen to near 50%.

UK map by EU Referendum votes

Now that a plan for indyref2 has been announced, the events can go either way.

It has been speculated that the UK Government may block a second referendum, as they are opposed to one being held, although if the Government do block indyref2 it could increase the chances of Scottish Independence, as support may increase as a result.

In 2014, Scotland held a referendum on whether or not it should become an independent country and 55% voted against Independence.  Although, lessons from the previous referendum may impact on how things go with a second referendum.  Scotland’s position within the European Union was a major campaigning tool for the Better Together campaign in 2014, now that the UK has voted for Brexit this may persuade some who voted against Independence in 2014 to change their mind about staying in the UK.

Now that this plan has been announced, is Scottish Independence more or less likely to be achieved?


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