Analysis: US Election Results

So the United States has a new President-Elect, and that man is Donald J. Trump, the controversial Republican candidate who had attracted so much media attention throughout the election.

The election result came as a shock to most of us, the polls had predicted that Hillary Clinton would win the election and become President-Elect.  But the Donald stormed to victory with the Republicans securing the White House, Congress, and the Senate, a full house of power.  But how did America vote.


The information, images and graphics in this article were gathered from the New York Times and BBC News.
New York Times: http://www.nytimes.com/elections/results/president
BBC News: http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/election-us-2016-37922587
Census.Gov: http://www.census.gov/prod/cen2010/briefs/c2010br-03.pdf
The Independent: http://www.independent.co.uk/news/people/presidential-election-donald-trump-would-have-lost-if-bernie-sanders-had-been-the-candidate-a7406346.html 
The Humanity Complex gives full credit to these organisations for the sources provided.

I have recently posted an article attempting to predict the US Election results a day before the ballots opened.  Read it here.


First off, lets look at the US Political Map of 2016.

usa-trump
The political map of the 50 US States for the 2016 Election.  Source: New York Times

This clearly shows that Donald Trump defeated Hillary Clinton in the industrial areas of the United States.  States such as Indianapolis and Michigan, who have lost a significant amount of industrial work from their communities have voted for Donald Trump.  His stance on outsourcing seems to have resonated with these communities and he has been successfully projected as the best choice for American workers, which evidently helped him win these states.

The Bible Belt states such as Texas, Alabama, Mississippi and South Carolina all voted for Trump.  Suggesting that his view on abortion has resonated with voters in this part of the country.  The four states mentioned above often do vote for Republican candidates so it could be argued that this was a safe win for Trump.

Most of the Democratic states above seem to be safe blue seats.  Suggesting that Hillary Clinton’s stance was not enough to secure many swing states.  This could be because of her policies but it is more likely to be about image.

It can be said that image was a crucial factor in the outcome of the 2016 US Election.  Donald Trump had an anti-establishment image throughout his campaign, which led to him winning the primaries and becoming the Republican nominee.  Hillary Clinton has been called the figurehead for the American Political Establishment.  Establishment politics is hugely unpopular in the United States.

One of Hillary Clinton’s biggest flaws was that she was an establishment figure and has led a life in politics.  Her past political career has been opened up to scrutiny by her opponents.  This is shown in the industrial States.   these areas have shown a high rate of dissatisfaction with Washington DC, so it is no surprise that they went for the outsider candidate.  Some are saying that this was a crucial factor for the Democrats losing the election, the number of 3rd Party votes and Trump’s overall election success.


Demographics:

If we look at the demographics of the United States we can see some patterns as to who voted for who.

wp-1478988648455.jpg
Who voted for Trump in the US Election vote.  Source: BBC News

If we look at the gender make up of the results, it is clear that most men voted for Donald Trump, and 54% of American women voted for Hillary Clinton.  This shows that Trump’s comments against women played a role in influencing voting behaviour in this election.  It could be argued that the prospect of America electing it’s first female President appealed to the female vote.  However if we look at the vote share, Clinton was only just over 50%, and women make up 50.8% of American’s according to the 2010 census.  This suggests that the assumption that Clinton would overwhelmingly secure the female vote was incorrect.  If we look at the ethnicity breakup it suggests that white women voters were a demographic that helped Trump win the election.  It seems as if the Democratic Party had a false sense of security regarding the female vote.  However, most women still voted Hillary.

wp-1478988602502.jpg

Another factor that could be said to have an impact on American voting behaviour is ethnicity.  It is clearly shown in the graph that the biggest ethnic group who voted for Donald Trump were White American voters.  It also shows that Hillary Clinton secured the overwhelming majority of African American, Hispanic American and Asian American voters.  This suggests that Donald Trump’s comments during the election had an impact on the way that Americans of different ethnicities voted.

wp-1478988655018.jpg
How the American public voted by ethnicity.  Source: BBC News

This suggests that events on Trump’s side of the campaign had a considerable impact.  88% of African Americans voted for Hillary Clinton, suggesting that Donald Trump’s endorsement from the Ku Klux Klan caused the majority of Black Americans to vote Clinton.

Another group that supported Hillary Clinton was the Hispanic American vote.  It was always predicted that Clinton would secure the Hispanic vote as Trump’s plans for mass deportations,  a border wall on the southern border and his comments about Mexican immigrants being criminals and rapists.  These comments obviously deterred the Hispanic American community from voting for Donald Trump.

We can also look at age as a factor that influenced voting behaviour.  As seen in the chart below.  There is a clear pattern, younger voters supported Hillary, and older voters supportedwp-1478988594573.jpg Trump.  This was seen in the early stages of the election where young voters overwhelmingly supported Bernie Sanders and the Democrats.  Ot was suggested that middle-aged voters would vote for Trump over employmant issues, yet again, outsourcing.


Now that the election is over, we can ask ourselves, could this election have had a different ending.  We just need to take all of the factors and compare them to see if there are any ways in which Donald Trump would not be President-Elect right now.  If we look at the Democrats vote share in certain battleground states you will notice that some of the votes that they lacked to secure key states went to 3rd Party candidates.  It i possible that these votes were split between Republican and Democratic votes but let’s look at a possible scenario.

As stated above Donald Trump’s image of an anti-establishment candidate helped him secure the Presidency, the fact that he was up against Hillary Clinton was a major factor as she is the establishment image that is so unpopular in America.  It could be argued that if another Democratic candidate with an anti-establishment image was to have run, the result would have been different.  I’m sure that if you are reading this then you know what I am about to write.  Bernie Sanders probably would’ve won the election against Trump, or even reduced Trump’s victory.  Sen. Sanders had policies such as free health care and no college tuition raised support amongst all demographics.  He also had a strong anti-establishment image and promised to tackle the top 1% of earners and combat big money inside American Politics.  He and Donald Trump also had some similar policies.  He wanted to combat corporate powers from outsourcing jobs and leaving American workers unemployed.  With this policy resemblance Sanders could have taken some key votes in the industrial states.

michigan
The vote share for the State of Michigan  – Source: BBC News

If we look at Michigan (above) we see that the Democrats would’ve secured the state with the 5.1% 3rd Party votes.  Sanders probably would’ve secured those votes.  He could’ve taken votes that went to Trump as he promised the American Public and end to the establishment that they despised and he had no scandals throughout his campaign.  He was a popular candidate and probably would’ve won the election.

However, some may argue that the age of Bernie Sanders would raise concerns amongst voters, he is currently 74, and at the end of a first term he would be 78, and 82 after a second term.  This may not have been an issue, if Sanders had a successful first term he could safely hand over to another Democrat for a second term to continue planned legislation.

Another major concern after this election was the popular vote.  Hillary Clinton achieved 48% of the National Popular Vote.

popular-vote

Clinton received more votes than Trump did, but due to the electoral system used in the United States, Donald Trump won.  It can be argued that if the electoral system was different then Hillary Clinton would be President-Elect.  Yet again the 3rd Party votes come into the spotlight.  As Trump and Clinton are extremely  unpopular, if other candidates were put forward then it could have given the winning candidate a secure majority of the popular vote.


Although, the case of Hillary Clinton’s emails may have played a role.  She has blamed FBI Director James Comey, who launched another investigation into her use of a private email server while acting as Secretary of State, just 11 days before the election.  Which shows that maybe her emails did play a huge role in her losing the election.


What would a Trump Presidency look like.  Donald Trump has come under fire for his cabinet appointments recently as he appoints Stephen Bannon, the former chairman of Breitbart News, as his Chief Strategist.  Bannon has been called out as a racist and a white nationalist by some campaign groups.  This may raise some questions about what type of legislation is brought in by the Trump Administration.  Furthermore, throughout the election Trump was a very strong critic of Obamacare.  At a rally in Sanford, Florida Trump said this about Obamacare.

“Together we are going to deliver real change that once again puts America first.  That begins with immediately repealing and replacing the disaster known as Obamacare.”

-Donald Trump on Obamacare

However, in an interview after the election, Donald Trump said that he would be keeping some parts of Obamacare, such as coverage for those with pre-existing conditions and for children living with their parents for an extended period of time.  Donald Trump described these parts of Obamacare as some of it’s strongest assets.

“Yes, because it happens to be one of the strongest assets.”

-Trump on aspects of Obamacare after the election

This could suggest that Donald Trump’s Presidency may not be as radical.  As he may regress some of his policies to suit the whole of America.  Also Trump’s ideas may not pass as White House staffers, Congress, The Supreme Court and the Senate may tell him that he can’t fulfill certain policies for reasons such as them being unconstitutional, or would have a negative impact on Government.  All of these obstacles will stop Trump from passing legislation freely.

Moreover, Trump may have a full house with Republican’s securing the Senate and Congress, but not all Republicans supported Trump.  Regardless of majority if not all Republicans support Trump then they may not side with him on issues, leading to legislation not getting passed through Congress.


That is my analysis of the US Election, after this we don’t know what is going to happen to our world, but we’ll just have to wait and see what happens.  This is a new era that we are entering, the era of the anti-establishment, an era of the unknown.

 

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